Fed Chair Warsh gives no rate signal in Bangkok; odds of a December hike rise to about 74%

Speaking at the IMF-World Bank meetings in Bangkok, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declined to signal what the Fed will do at its October 27-28 meeting or later this year. He described a synchronised tightening in monetary policy across most of the world and named AI-driven investment as one factor behind higher inflation. Traders read the remarks as pointing to a hold in October, while CME FedWatch put the chance of a December hike at 74.3%, up from 50.2% a month earlier.

• No forward guidance on the Oct. 27-28 FOMC meeting
• Warsh cited AI investment as one source of inflation pressure
• December hike odds 74.3% vs 50.2% a month ago (CME FedWatch)
• September CPI 3.7% y/y; PPI 6.3% y/y